DUBLIN, Ireland: Ireland could face fines of up to 27 billion euros for failing to meet EU emissions targets, a new report has warned.

The study, published by the Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council, highlights the urgent need for action to avoid "colossal costs."

The report outlines a worst-case scenario in which Ireland takes no additional steps to reduce emissions and must buy expensive credits from other EU countries. However, if the government implements planned climate measures, the potential cost could drop significantly to between 3 billion euros and 12 billion euros.

Ireland is currently among the worst-performing EU countries under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), which covers emissions from domestic transport, buildings, small industry, waste, and agriculture. On a per capita basis, it ranks the lowest. Maire Donnelly, chairwoman of the Climate Change Advisory Council, described the country as a "standout laggard."

The financial consequences depend on how close Ireland gets to meeting its targets and the overall EU market for compliance credits. Fiscal Advisory Council chairman Seamus Coffey noted the broad range of possible fines, stating: "The range is extensive – but it doesn't include zero, it doesn't include negative numbers."

The report argues that Ireland has a choice: invest now to strengthen climate policies or face massive payouts to EU neighbors. "Recent events have highlighted how climate action can benefit people," the authors write, citing the cost-of-living crisis linked to fossil fuel imports and extreme weather events like Storm Eowyn.

Failure to meet targets has already cost the country 500 million euros in lost revenue from carbon credits, which Ireland has had to hold rather than sell to meet its own shortfalls.

The study suggests key investments to close the gap, such as 7 billion euros for electricity grid upgrades, 4 billion euros to lower the cost of 700,000 electric cars, and 1 billion euros for forestry and peatland restoration. "A few measures could make a big difference," Donnelly said.